Research

Universal fuel subsidies are among the most common transfers in low-income countries, but whether the households that captured most of the benefit are the ones who bear the cost of removal is largely unknown. We study Nigeria's abrupt May 2023 fuel subsidy removal with fuel prices tripled overnight. Digitizing the regulator's depot reports, we build a panel of 99 geolocated fuel depots and link each survey cluster to its nearest marine-fed depot. Under the national price ceiling, distance to supply was invisible at the pump; once the ceiling went, it priced. Each additional kilometer raised the local post-reform price increase by 0.16 percentage points, a gradient at least two and a half times the most generous documented cost of hauling fuel. We use that geography as both a difference-in-differences exposure measure and an instrument for the realized local price change. On-time childhood vaccination fell while eventual receipt did not, so children were vaccinated late rather than not at all, and the decline concentrated where facilities were sparse, households poor, and clusters northern or rural. Contraceptive protection fell most and is measured best, though it fails its pre-trend test. Antenatal coverage and skilled delivery did not move, while postnatal care for the newborn fell sharply, and among children with diarrhoea oral rehydration gave way to antibiotics. Restoring these losses would cost 300 millions of dollars annually against roughly $2 billion in avoided subsidy spending. Exposure to a subsidy's benefit runs with fuel consumed; exposure to its removal runs with distance travelled.

Labor markets in developing countries are marked by high informality, self-employment, and strong ties to agriculture, yet evidence on short-term job dynamics remains scarce. This paper provides the first nationally representative estimates of within-year labor market transitions in Sub-Saharan Africa and examines how they interact with agricultural cycles and household welfare. Using ten rounds of panel data from the Nigeria General Household Survey (2010–2024), I construct quarterly transition rates across employment types and household non-farm enterprise (HNFE) job flows. The Nigerian labor market is highly fluid: only 77 percent of workers remain in the same job each quarter, with farm–non-farm switches dominating job-to-job transitions. HNFEs display quarterly job creation and destruction rates around 15–16 percent, mostly reflecting household entry and exit. Smaller HNFEs grow faster, rejecting Gibrat's Law and suggesting binding early-stage frictions. Employment and enterprise outcomes move in sync with the agricultural cycle — post-harvest periods expand non-farm activity despite lower productivity, while shocks shift labor back to farming. Together, the findings reveal a mobile but weakly productive labor market and argue against one-size-fits-all entrepreneurship policies, underscoring the value of targeted, timely interventions aligned with seasonal agricultural rhythms.

JEL Codes: J21, J63, O12, Q12

Excess manganese (Mn) exposure may harm brain development and is widespread in drinking water in low- and middle-income countries. Despite this, evidence linking Mn and child development remains limited, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. We collect 170 drinking-water samples from households, preschools, and community sources in rural Ghana and link Mn concentrations to developmental assessments of 180 children aged 2–4 years. Mn contamination is common across source types; notably, elevated concentrations in sachet water, widely consumed as a safer alternative to surface and tap water, occur exclusively in products from unregistered manufacturers outside regulatory oversight. Despite measured contamination, perceived water safety remains high across exposed families. Higher Mn concentrations in household water are associated with lower developmental scores for children, with an additive effect on children attending preschools with high-Mn drinking water. These associations are not explained by co-occurring metals, highlighting the need to strengthen Mn monitoring and drinking-water regulation.

Background: Limited access to high-quality care for rural populations contributes to significant rural–urban health disparities and slow progress towards universal health coverage in many countries. Programs aimed at increasing access to healthcare in remote areas have produced mixed results, and evidence on the downstream social and economic impacts of these programs remains scarce, particularly in low-income settings.

Objectives: By means of a cluster-randomized controlled trial, this project evaluates an integrated community health outreach model providing routine access to basic healthcare services by linking government healthcare providers with hard-to-reach communities in rural Uganda. The primary aim of the trial is to evaluate the impact and implementation of this integrated outreach program on family planning service delivery, women's contraceptive choices, and subsequent labor market outcomes.

Methods: A total of 64 health facilities in six rural districts will be randomized into two arms: (1) a treatment group, in which health facility staff will roll out monthly healthcare service delivery outreach visits to two remote villages within their catchment area; and (2) a control group, in which there are no health outreach activities. Twenty households from each of the two outreach villages, and one key personnel from each of the 64 health facilities, will be invited to participate in a baseline survey and a 12-month follow-up. Household survey data will be complemented with health facility surveys and administrative data on service provision.

Discussion: Results will provide novel evidence on the potential of an integrated community-health outreach model for expanding access to care in Uganda, with relevance for other low- and middle-income countries.

Trial registration: AEA Social Science Registry (AEARCTR-0015003), registered January 27, 2025; also on ClinicalTrials.gov.